Joelcool7 said:
Well your absolutely right in an archaic sense. The GameBoyAdvance was still selling very well when the DS got released. That sort of pumps a hole in your logic. Also you can't forget other sources influencing Nintendo's decision making. Do you really think DS would have come out if the PSP wasn't in the works? Nintendo would have stuck with the GBA. In the same way Sony has already publically revealed that a new PSP is in the works. Many believe the new handheld could be revealed at this E3 or the next one. The PSPGo was a market failure and Sony is looking to launch a new platform. So if Sony is preparing a new handheld device then Nintendo will also release a new device. What happens if the next PSP launches and Nintendo decides to stick to its guns and not answer with a new platform? The DS market share will shrink and disapear within two years. Look at how long the GBA lasted after the DS/PSP launched? Nintendo stated at E3 2004 that the DS would not be replacing the GBA that they were going to keep the GBA going and continue supporting it. The GBA proved that Nintendo can't ignore the competition, Nintendo has to evolve and it needs to create a new platform to compete. A new handheld is definatly on its way whether it arrives at Nintendo's press summit or at this years E3 at latest next E3 if Sony doesn't reveal a handheld.
P.S- Blue Ocean strategy is more then a supportive factor in a new handheld coming. Blue Ocean is Nintendo's strategy of expanding the market. The DS has expanded the market about as much as it can, its time for a new ground breaking console to continue that expansion. |
First, the Blue Ocean Strategy is a book, not something Nintendo made up. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5foJ-cwj4Mk
The tagline of the book is "How to create an uncontested marketspace and make the competition irrelivant." Reggie says that the point is to focus on growth and not trying to one-up the competition. The goal is to sidestep competition and create a new product that gives new values not offered in the industry. The DS added the value of the touch screen which made games easier for those who have never played them and allowed Nintendo make new types of games like Nintendogs.
What you are suggesting is that Nintendo needs to counter Sony, but this is Red Ocean thinking. This is thinking about competition and not growth. Decline and stagnation in markets are created by compeiting on industry standard. Nintendo knows their goal is to grow the market place. They mention this all the time for the DS and Wii. How would the DS2 grow the market? Can they mantain growth if they have to get old DS users to migrate and attract new ones. See how this plan is just impractical to do against just keeping the Ds and making more software. You mentioned Miyamoto said Nintendo is working on a new handheld. Nintendo, like Sony, is always working on a new handheld. Nintendo would never let Miyamoto talk about their next system before it is offically announced as someone could start stealing secrets. Heck, Miyamoto also is aware of this and would never risk it. However, Iwata did tell investors that Nintendo has noticed the DS's declineing sales. He said this:
On to our challenges on the decline of our software shipment in the “Other Regions” including the European market, we acknowledge it as a big issue because, even though the decrease in actual sales in the markets was smaller than the decrease in our shipments (as I said during today’s presentation), the actual sales declined about 20%. Some say it is due to piracy activities made possible by devices such as Magic-Coms(R4), but I don’t believe it’s the only reason. When Nintendo DS was getting more and more popular and sales figure performed accordingly, some of our product proposals became a social phenomena. Just like Brain Training in Japan, Nintendogs or Brain Training did the same thing in the European market. Actually Brain Training performed fine there last year – it sold over a million copies in Europe but the previous year had sold more than three million copies. That means Brain Training had less visibility as a social phenomenon last year. Nintendogs is in a similar situation. If we could propose what will replace them and maintain a high visibility in society, then the Nintendo DS momentum can be activated and more software titles can be sold. What this means is that we were not able to do that. Thus I believe our highest priority is to propose and offer Nintendo DS titles which can be another social phenomena.
Nintendo said their strategy to to offer new DS titles. Their goal is to keep the DS alive.
Now, you mentioned that the GBA was doing well during the DS. however, you have to see the market from Nintendo's prespective from that time. The Gameboy like was shoehored to young kids in the US and Europe and wwasn't doing great in Japan. Reports showed the market was starting to decline and it already had in Japan. Nintendo knew they had to do something, so they used Blue Ocean Strategy to create a new market space and create growth. This is where the DS comes in. Nintendo is conservative, so they wont try some radical plan unless they have a back up. This is why Metroid Fusion came out around Metroid Prime and may be why Galasy 2 is coming out (to help NSMBWii if it failed). So, Nintendo kept the GBA line in case the DS failed, thus the third pillar. The GBA Micro was made in case the DS failed. The DS successded, and all focuses moved to the DS. But you may ask "Why did the Micro come out after the DS's success." Remember that the DS took some time to get warmed up in the US. It was Brain Age that made the DS here (although Nintedogs still did well). Nintendo, at that time, was still hoping the DS made the impact in the west it did in Japan. So, at E3 05, Nintendo announced the Micro. But, again, the DS worked and it was discontinued.
Before I close remember the PSP Go? Remember what Nintendo did in responce. Nothing. The PSP Go was Sony trying for what they though would be a big hit in digital distribution. Nintendo saw no threat and did not respond. When Sony announced the PSP2, Nintendo will not respond. You have to understand that the DS is in a Blue Ocean, and Nintendo will only respond if the PSP2 has the same values as the DS. Right now, they are not in the same market space. Nintendo "Made the competition irrelevant." Their goal is not to compete for the handheld market, and they know they have lost every time they compete on the same values, as has Sega. They will never compete dirrectly with Sony ever again. Heck, the DS is not competing with the PSP, and it's the most successful Nintendo system so far. To counter attack the PSP2 (which, mind you, has not been revealed. Notice how Nintendo is always last to respond?) would be to sacrifice their blue ocean they successfully created and jump back into the red ocean and fight Sony and lose.
It's dumb for Nintendo to release a new handheld and they know it. It's not coming.
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