This is just my opinion and I've done zero research on the matter:
I think that Nintendo does whatever it wants to do.
I think Sony does what it thinks we want them to do.
I think Microsoft does all kinds of research and does what they need to do.
So while Sony and Nintendo take some risks (Sony does with technology and Nintendo does with creativity) Microsoft plays it very safely. They go for the tried and true. As a result, they don't really make any mistakes. Getting successful franchises on their console is all part of the formula.