GOW3 very much likely to selll 1.5 mn+ first week.

[HappySqurriel]

--OkeyDokey-- said:

HappySqurriel said:

libellule said:

HappySqurriel said:

Being that God of War II sold closer to 500,000 first week, I think predictions like this are a good way to be disappointed with the sales God of War III achieves.

and looking at past-gen episode that were new IP (god of war1) or end of the PS2 gen release (god of war2) are a good way to be surprised IMO

How many PS3 games have sold dramatically better or faster than their PS2 counterparts?

How many game series in general see a decline in sales from the first game to the second game (with a continued decline on another platform) to suddenly see a massive spike to far beyond 3 times their original popularity?

750,000 sales first week is optimistic ... and I couldn't imagine Sony manufacturing more than 1 Million copies for the initial run.

Metal Gear Solid fits your description perfectly. Saw a decline (of 1.5 million) from the second to third game one PS2 and sold barely a million on PSP. Then the PS3 sequel went on to sell 1.7 million first week. Significatly more than its PS2 prequel.

And MGS4 and God of War 3 are similar in that they're event type games. The last chapters in their respective franchises with a ridiculous amount of hype. Also, ioi has predicted 700-800k first week in America alone.

If you count the multiple releases of earlier Metal Gear Solid games and compare it against the sales of Metal Gear Solid 4 you will notice that Metal Gear Solid 4 is (roughly) in line with the sales of Metal Gear Solid 3. On top of this, if you compare the initial week sales of 2, 3 and 4 in Japan all three games had (roughly) the same initial week sales; and at no point did a Metal Gear Solid game sell at 3 times the rate of previous games.

500,000+ is a safe bet, 750,000+ is optimistic, and there is an outside chance of 1,000,000; but there is no way it will break 1,500,000 first week