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Danny355 on 04 December 2007
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Avinash_Tyagi said:
Danny355 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Danny355 said:
The PS2 is likley to sell another 15m+ units by the end of 2010 and at this point stating the Wii is going to sell 33m for the next 3 years is just silly speculation, let alone the 40+ it would realistically need to overtake the PS2. Its just about possible but very, very unlikely. People are getting very carried away after seeing the holiday numbers. Next year will be huge for the Wii but its not going to sell twice what it did this year. Lets not get carried away the Wii has sold 15m in its first year. Next year the 360 and the PS3 will be much more competitively priced so even though the Wii will be huge again I expect the market shares to stay the same as they are now.

 Most people have no interest in the PS3 and 360, you notice even with its price drop PS3 struggled to compete with Wii, even during a lull point in the market, since sales in Japan always take a downturn in Oct and Nov, yet the Wii kept chugging along at a healthy pace, why?  Because Wii success is independent of the PS3 and 360, you think grandma is going to want to headshot aliens? Probably not, but she will want to bowl


Most people have no interest in the 360? Im sorry but that is just delusion. In the biggest market its still going to take another 6 months for the Wii to catch the 360s sales. I dont understand your maths either, like Tuggy has pointed out there are 1.8 million Wiis being made each month at the moment, at a time when the demand is huge. So what makes you think they are going to sell more than 21 million during 2008? The Wii has just cracked 15 million in its first year, which is a stunning result, but to catch the PS2 by 2010 it would have to do 3 times that for the next 3 years, an impossible task that a few bowling grannies is not going to change! I really want the Wii to suceed and destroy the Playstation name and everything it stood for, but that is years away and the success of the PS2 shouldnt be underestimated.


 What are you talking about PS2 is at 112 million units according to VGchartz, which means Wii only has to sell about 97-98 million over three years, that means Wii has to essentially double its production, you do understand that while Wii is at 1.8 million per month production right now that will not always be the case, production will be added and that figure will go up.  I recommend you look up the concpets of short run vs. long run, with regards to production.

 Yeah most people do not have any interest in the 360, less than 15 million have been sold worldwide in two years that's not great demand, I mean just in the three major markets there are about a billion people plus, so that is a mere fraction of the populations owns it, and demand has been slow, by comparison Wii has suprassed that number in half the time, while being hard to find in most regions


Define "Most people". You're just ignoring facts. The world wide 360 numbers dont give a realistic view of the western markets for obvious reasons. Even if the Wii continues to sell at the current rate it'll take the best part of another year to overtake the 360 in the biggest market and the Wii is YEARS AWAY from having a dominant market share in America...So how is that "no interest"?

As for your comments about the PS2, yes the Wii is currently something like 98 million behind but the PS2 is the 2nd best selling console. Your comments suggest you think the PS2 will die in a few months and never sell another unit. No need to be clever about the "concepts of long & short run" its quite simple: The PS2 has sold 5m+ this year and was STILL the 2nd biggest selling console last week.

The Wii only took around 9m out of the PS2s lead this year. So yes you're right the Wii needs to double production and keep that up for the next 3 years to pass the PS2s. Will that happen? Well despite the current crazy numbers Nintendo obviously arnt prepared to take a risk at the moment to increase the production. Let alone double the production. Even if the Wiis demand doubles tommorow it'll take another year for Nintendo tohave the confidence to DOUBLE the production.

So the earliest possible time they can overtake the PS2 is at least 12/31/2011, more likely 12/31/2012.