Forza 3 sells two million. Overtracked?

[Hisiru]

edjevink said:

Hisiru said:

edjevink said:
Come on, it's clear that VGC overtracked Forza 3. NPD numbers for october are 175.000, and in november Forza 3 wasn't even in the top 20. That means that november sales for Forza 3 are probably below 250.000, considering that number 10 sold 315.000 units.

So, according to NPD numbers Forza 3 sold a MAXIMUM of 425.000 units in october/november in the US. And it's probably even less than that. That means, what, 475.000 units sold in North America? But like i said, probably less than that. But according to VGC the game sold 610.000 units in the same period. So that's 28% more than NPD numbers, and maybe even 30-35% more.

Anyway, the Turn 10 statement actually confirms that VGC overtracked the game. According to them the game just reached the milestone of 2 million units sold, probably sold to consumer, which bye the way is a very good accomplishment. The VGC number for Forza 3 is currently at 2.39, so yeah, it is overtracked. By how much? I don't know, probably around 300.000, maybe a bit less. Does it matter? Not really. UNLESS they don't change their numbers of course.

No offense but your post is full of "probably", it makes your post appears to be just a guess without credibility (how can you be sure that november sales for Forza 3 are below 250k just because the number 10 sold 315k? What if the entire top 20 performed well and next to 300k?). We all know that NPD is per month and VGchartz is per week, there will be differences (obviously). Forza 3 was launched October 27, so it's just 4 days for NPD, that's why they showed only 175k.

And no, according to Turn 10 this game is "over 2M" (not just reached 2M).

 

@Rainbird

"Surpasses 2 Million Copies Worldwide"

"is now in the hands of more than 2 million passionate car lovers around the world"

Unfortunately there is no solid numbers, "more than 2m" can be anything (including 2.5M).

That's where you are wrong my friend. NPD sales of, let's say October, are NOT from October 1 to October 30. Like VGC, NPD sales always account for a 4 week period or a 5 week period.

Btw, you ask me why i'm sure that november NPD sales for Forza 3 are below 250k. Well, if you look at the top 20 list of november software sales on VGC, than we see Dragon Age: Origins (PS3) closing the list at number 20 with sales of 240.000, so that's roughly 215.000 in the US alone. So, looking at those numbers, my Forza 3 estimate of <250k sales in november is probably even way too optimistic. It's probably more like 200k, which makes the gab between NPD and VGC numbers for Forza 3 for october/november even bigger.

BUT, all this was just a "probably" post, as you said. I prefer to call it "logical thinking", although you still could argue that it has no credibility because we don't know exact NPD numbers. BUT, what makes my post one WITH credibility is the Turn 10 statement. You can say all you want, like for instance that more than 2m can mean 2.5m as well, but any PR-man in the world can tell you that "more than 2m" in a press statement does NOT mean 2.39m or 2.5m.

No, NPD will release the date basing on what they have for the entire month.

Now you are mixing NPD and VGC numbers (using VGC numbers for Dragon Age) to prove that your theory is right.

If you are saying that VGC is overtracking F3 numbers, why wouldn't VGC overtrack/undertrack numbers for Dragon Age? Your mix doesn't make sense. If F3 is overtracked (in your opinion) and the VGC's top 20 is wrong, you shouldn't use this top 20 to show your argument, you should actualy use only the NPD numbers and try to find the full NPD's top 20, so you will be able to say if the games are next to 300k in the NPD's top 20 or not.

Yes, "logical thinking" indeed, I can't say that you are in the wrong direction but you made some mistakes. You need to prove that Forza 3 didn't sell next to 300k in the NPD numbers of november (this is impossible without NPD data, you can't use VGC data).