When you sign a contract with the military, it usually doesn't mean you'll hand it over the next day. The delivery of product could be months or years into the future. You can sign extensive support contracts and sell development kits, even training. The government is not efficient.
Anyone can guess. It takes no effort to throw out lots of predictions and have some of them be correct. You are not and wiser or better for having your guesses be right. Even a blind man can hit the bullseye.