If they make $20 per game sold they "only" need to sell 130,000 games to pay for the ad. We know the pre-orders for the game, so if week 1 actual sales is significantly more / about expected / less than what pre-orders normally indicate you'll have your answer as to whether the ad was worth it. If the ad has any selling potential it might last 2 or 3 weeks, but still expect the main effect to be in the first week.
The ad might reach 100 million people but the PS360 install base in the whole of the Americas only 34 million (less dead consoles). OK, OK 2.4 people per household = 81.6 million people so it puts it up there, but still a lot of PS360 owners are not American football fans / watchers, and 34 million is the whole of the Americas not just USA.
The good thing about it doing well on PS3 is that it would be a good sign for the main course coming in March. It would seem nothing in the H'n'S genre has really got people buying yet, including on 360. Even the highly acclaimed Bayonetta and the well reviewed Darksiders aren't setting the world on fire.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."
Jimi Hendrix
