GreyianStorm said:
You're not taking into account holiday sales. The gap will be much, much bigger during the holidays (most likely). That's not to say the PS3 will be in the lead in terms of weekly sales, but whoever is in the lead should expect the gap to grow accordingly during the holidays. You're also forgetting game launches. While the 360 might have a better line-up (in your opinion, discussed below in green), they do have considerably more sequels (Halo Reach being the biggest, by far), which aren't too likely to push that much hardware. The gap could shrink during the April-September season, but I would be extremely surprised if it was only 40k during late November and December. That is purely your opinion. To be honest, I personally don't feel that either system has that strong a line-up this year. Neither of their line-ups really appeal to me. I think the major game that appeals to me is Gran Turismo 5. There will probably be games that are as yet unannounced that will interest me (Resistance 3 perhaps?), but as things stand there is no way you can definitively say that the "2010 line-up is very much in 360's favour." That is your opinion, not fact. Just because they print money doesn't mean they push hardware. I doubt Halo Reach will push as much hardware (certainly not long-term, which is admittedly hard to put an exact figure on) as GT5. |
When i said that it is in the 360's favour i meant as in the big hitters seem to be on 360 this year. If were talking AAA titles then on PS3 you have GT5. FFXIII is already out and had it's Japan sales. In the west the impact will be minimal due to it being multi-platform. If it was still exclusive then you could include it. God of War 3 is not an AAA title. The two versions combined in nearly a decade on sale do not make it into the 6m figures. In terms of franchises as i mentioned that is not very good. Halo 3 on it's own sold more then that in under a year. That is a big franchise.
So you got GT5 which will do very very well. It is a 1st day purchase for me.
If we look beyond the AAA titles the 360 has games which have done well in the past i.e Mass Effect2, Fable 3, Splinter Cell Conviction,Crackdown 2 etc etc.
Where as the PS3 beyond GT5 and GOW3 gets weak in its line up. Now i don't think you have to be biased or intelligent to figure out that generally sequels tend to do better then 1st time ip's.
To use your game you mention as an example. Resistance 3. I think it is pretty likely that game will be announced this year. But the franchise is another game that for some reason people think is better then it really is in terms of sales. The first 1 sold 3.6m which is a huge number for a new ip. But the follow up has only just past the 1.5m barrier. That is not great for a sequel.
In comparison to say Gears of War 3 which will also obviously be announced this year the first one sold 6m and the 2nd one thus far has sold nearly 6m too. In half the time of the 1st one. You would have to say it is pretty likely within the next year that gow2 will outsell gears of war 1.
So that is my opinion but i base it on actual sales, things that have happened. That is what an analyst does.
The same is with my orgional figures for the gap. Looks like i was right as the gap as predicted is decreasing each week.
If that gap falls further and further and we get to E3 and Natal and the price drop comes in making the 360 reach that magic £99 barrier and the PS3 remains as it is then im sorry but i seriously do not see how people can expect the PS3 to beat that? We have here a total mirror image of what happened in 08. The PS3 went into that year beating the 360 and everyone was saying the exact same thing you have said. But the gap got closer and closer and then 360 drops price and they make back the numbers the ps3 had gained on them. The exact samething will happen this year.
