| Hyruken said: I wonder if those who voted yes still think the same? We are now a month into the new year. After the back of some strong games for the PS3 (FFXIII) and a few months from the price cut new model etc the gap is 6m units and the weekly gap is around 40k. Next week you would expect that gap to be smaller what with the sales Mass Effects supposedly did. But let's keep the gap as it is right now i.e 40k a week. At this rate it would be 160k a month. Meaning at that ratio the gap will decrease by 1.760M by the end of this year. Making it about 4.5m gap by the end of this year. Then we take that ratio and put it into the following year means by the end of 2011 at its current sales ratio would see the 4.5m gap fall by another 1.9m units. Bringing the gaps new total to 2.6m units. Now that is based on assumption that everything right now stays as it is. That will obviously not be the case. I think you have to factor in that 2010 line-up is very much in 360's favour. GT5 if/when it comes is the last big game for Sony this year. You have big franchise games that have a licence to print money such as Halo. Add to that you got the new gimmick in Natal and a very obvious price cut coming leads me to believe that that 40k a week gap by the end of the year will turn into a gap once again in the 360's favour. That is my assumption. So no it won't happen and will most likely not outsell the 360 before the next generation begins. At it's current ratio of 40k a week it would take 38 months to draw level which is 3 and a half years. |
You're not taking into account holiday sales. The gap will be much, much bigger during the holidays (most likely). That's not to say the PS3 will be in the lead in terms of weekly sales, but whoever is in the lead should expect the gap to grow accordingly during the holidays. You're also forgetting game launches. While the 360 might have a better line-up (in your opinion, discussed below in green), they do have considerably more sequels (Halo Reach being the biggest, by far), which aren't too likely to push that much hardware. The gap could shrink during the April-September season, but I would be extremely surprised if it was only 40k during late November and December.
That is purely your opinion. To be honest, I personally don't feel that either system has that strong a line-up this year. Neither of their line-ups really appeal to me. I think the major game that appeals to me is Gran Turismo 5. There will probably be games that are as yet unannounced that will interest me (Resistance 3 perhaps?), but as things stand there is no way you can definitively say that the "2010 line-up is very much in 360's favour." That is your opinion, not fact.
Just because they print money doesn't mean they push hardware. I doubt Halo Reach will push as much hardware (certainly not long-term, which is admittedly hard to put an exact figure on) as GT5.
