RolStoppable said:
No, this is incorrect. It's only that way since this generation and not a general rule of the console market. More importantly, the current market leader doesn't follow this trend and is still in line with the dynamics found in previous generations. If the market leader doesn't do a certain thing, then that thing can't be applied as the standard for the market. Rather, the constant introduction of new and cheaper models highlights how flawed the business plan of the PS3 was and maybe still is. Regarding your predictions, they are almost always spot on. At least those you keep mentioning in your posts. Of course you would have to anticipate 2010 to be a bigger year for the PS3, because one of your predictions is that the PS3 will average 15m units sold per year over the course of the next seven years. Going off this prediction, what do you think in which year will the PS3 beat the Wii in yearly sales? |
I was talking about this generation and I don't think it's a flawed approach at all. For example the original Nintendo DS did not interest me one bit due to its form factor. I think the redesign appealed to far more people, including me. I'm also more interested in the PSP Go for the long run. Of course form factor matters more in the handheld market.
It was already known that Sony would gradually lower the PS3 entry pricing with technological/production advancements, it's not that different from Sony's PS2 approach with regard to this yet happened a little faster as the PS3 was designed based on the latest and greatest components available at the time (expensive, but coming down in cost rapidly with mass production). Personally I also applaud new options like stereoscopic 3D and the Arc controller, not that different from the PS2's introduction of the Eyetoy, etc. Games like Eye Sports and Eye Play probably probably inspired Nintendo as well. Nintendo also lowered its pricing, released Wii fit / motion plus and new black models, etc. New this gen is the introduction of ever more storage space for entry models.
Regarding beating the Wii in yearly sales, I don't consider that to be crucial. Sony should run its own race, it's not like the Wii is really impacting PS3 3rd party support that much and most of the truly great and promising titles are coming from its first parties. If everything goes as I expect, then the Wii will see a high definition replacement before the PS3 beats the Wii in sales. Probably it will be a technically weaker console than the PS3 in most regards and thus I think will still be a current gen sales battle. The Wii I view more as a late last gen console, so from my perspective maybe its end install base should rather be compared with the PS2 than the PS3. The PS3 will have helped to pave the way for a new more capable Nintendo console and if it's Wii compatible (and able to scale up) I will probably buy one myself! 
