If Zelda drops this year, I think it would take most GotY awards. I get the feeling it'll be Nintendo's next SMG, ending up as the highest scoring Zelda since Ocarina.
Or I could be wrong. Won't know until it's out, after all.
And if the Last Guardian drops this year, I could see it getting the nod from the more artsy sites.
Aside from that, Mass Effect would probably take GotY.
Of course, games released at the start of the year are sometimes overlooked when the end of the year rolls around, something I find to be very annoying. I'm not sure if it's the high that accompanies the more recent holiday release or what, but more often than not GotY awards are slanted towards games released in the last half of the year. If ME2 ends up being significantly higher than the rest in the end, it should have nothing to worry about from this, though.
Edit:
I voted with a firm, definitive maybe.
