I think Avatar will win considering what it has achieved.
The unoriginality of the theme doesnt really matter to me much, I dont think it was executed in the best way in terms of story narrative but the technical achievements it has certainly compensate it for me, the movie was beautiful.
Since we are talking about the theme, Id point out that there is an epic poem from the 1500s called "La Araucana" written by Alonso de Ercilla and its considered one of the most important works in the spanish golden age.
The setting is similar since Alonso de Ercilla was in Chile for the Arauco war between Spaniords and Mapuche natives in which Spain couldnt remove them from their territory and it was similar to what humans were doing to the Na´vi, sending priests to change their faith and make them surrender when they realized they couldnt beat them.
In "la Araucana" he sees natives as very noble, he has sympathy for the Indians' suffering, admiration for the courage of their resistance, criticism of Spanish cruelty, etc... after living with them for some time.
Ive seen similar things in many other movies or stories(though the one above was true), the Last Samurai is the most recent I remember, Ive havent seen all of the movies above so I cant comment on if it should win or not, but I considered a great movie overall.
- Our album on spotify https://open.spotify.com/album/56mEbEgyBYGzcDyZ1eMQ1v?si=hYKgir5YRSCrzywgGmV4oQ
- Our videoclip
- My manga: https://www.webtoons.com/en/challenge/blanca-the-world/list?title_no=313068