Xbox 360- 50 million by the end of this year am I crazy?

[postofficebuddy]

50 million shipped? Shouldn't be too hard. Actually sold? Very, very highly unlikely. Even with Natal being treated as a relaunch you can't really compare it to the PS3 slim. The slim came not even 3 years into the consoles lifespan and it was the first time it was available at a mass market price. By the time Natal comes out in the fall the console will be 5 years old and it will have had an entry price point of $200 for 2 years. With Natal being treated as a legitimate relaunch I can't see it getting a price cut before then because I'm assuming they'll want to bundle it with all 360s going forward, which will essentially act as a price hike unless they wait to cut the price simultaneously with the Natal launch.

Plus if the rumors are to believed I don't think the elite model will be around for much longer. The super elite is probably going to be cut to $300 soon and we'll probably see a 320 gig or maybe 500 gig model introduced at $350 or $400. I've said it before but I still think Microsoft is still losing money on the arcade model considering the price hike in the UK so I find a price cut for that model unlikely.

On top of that it must be considered how much money they're spending on Natal development and also they're latest initiative in Japan. The way things are currently looking unless this latest push is highly successful the 360 is going to be a fair bit down YOY in that region alone. I realize it's a bit early but on top of that the current trend world wide points towards a steady YOY decline. FFXIII might give enough boost to break even for quarter 1 but I think q2 and q3 are both going to be down YOY.

I can't see Reach giving a very big lift considering the bump that ODST gave was barely even noticeable. So that leaves Natal to reenergize sales and make up the difference during the holiday. Now I won't rule out Natal becoming a huge game changer but it's going to need a truly killer app to pull it off. The concerns that some devs have raised about latency issues leave me a little sceptical. Finally we still don't know if Natal will even be compatable with the Arcade. Realistically speaking, best case scenario I can see is the 360 being slightly up YOY, maybe 500k. 50 million is just too far out there.