He's not crazy. Overly optimistic maybe but not crazy.
See, the problem is that most people can't see past their OWN feelings about Project Natal. Despite the repeated rips we STILL see on the Wii, this holiday proved that people in general are still buying the thing up in ridiculous droves.
Here's the REALITY, folks: IF (and that's a big if) Project Natal can find a 'casual killer app', then it and the 360 will likely have its best holiday yet.
I say a 'casual killer app' because it won't be a hit this year with core gamers AT ALL. There hasn't been enough time to develop a game that would appeal to us enough to get past our skepticism. But a hot item with the casuals is unstoppable and every casual or non-gamer that I have personally shown Project Natal to has been FASCINATED with it already. A casual killer app will be very hard to come across, so we'll have to simply wait and see what MS and 3rd parties announce later in the year.
So, if you couldn't tell already, I voted for option 4.