Why do you people insist on ignoring the possibility of an x360 relaunch? A relaunch with enough marketing behind it will allow MS to atleast ship 50 mill units before years end.
Do you honestly believe MS wont have the largest marketing spend ever for any of their products in recent years? That coupled with pricecuts and game lineups will create a dominoeffect that will allow MS to atleast make retaliers buy their stuff in order to reach that milestone.
I dont have much faith in NATAL being all that amazing, but the marketing spend will allow MS to give that appearence so enough people will buy into it.
Alot of people completely underestimated the effect a relaunch of PS3 would have, and make no mistake, x360+relaunch+natal+pricecut+marketing muscle will have a significant impact.