So you mention system sellers...
First off Gears of War 3 hasn't been announced or even hinted for a 2010 release as of yet so you can't count that.
We'll see how much of a System Seller ME2 is when we get next week's chart.
I don't know much about Fable but isn't it like Mass Effect 2 where you can import stuff from Fable I over to Fable II and Fable II over to Fable III? So if you consider that, Fable III isn't a big System seller at all.
Alan Wake and Splinter Cell as System Sellers??? Serious?! Nah.
Halo: Reach by far will be the biggest X360 System Seller amongst all exclusives for X360 this year. And it probably won't be huge either since Halo fans would alreadly own a 360 by now.
Natal I'm really not too sure about. But currently I'm leaning more towards the system seller side for now.
Halo and Price Cut would help but in the end, 50 mil might just be out of reach.