Unless they are really banking on Natal to be their bread and butter in 2011, although it fits in terms of schedule I would be very surprised to see Gears 3 this year. That would leave 2011 potentially weakened, although of course it would make Xbox own 2010 in a huge way with a big Halo, Gears 3, Mass Effect 2, Splinter Cell 5, Fable 3, and Natal (insane lineup)!!
An insidious thought is that they might actually want that - they might want 2011 to be banking on Natal to get all attention focused on it, and also to make gamers want to migrate to a new 2012 console by having a "sparse" 2011-early 2012, which would have a big lineup, possible by making devs free of huge releases in 2011. Dunno, it's also possible they might have the new Xbox for X-mas 2011.
So far the only thing that's really "sure" is Mass Effect 3 in late 2011 / early 2012, due to dev cycle.
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