It hasnt sold below 200k since Slim Launch. But it will fall under 200k definetly. Just look at this week.
78k in NA it will be hard for the PS3 to cross 200k this week again even though I think it will make it. But it will fall definetly under 200k in the slowest period.
This week it could be 80k NA 25K Jap and 100k Others. But 25k every week in Japan is unlkely last year it was between 8k and 15k in the slowest time of the year.