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sirroman on 28 January 2010
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Miguel_Zorro said:
Rath said:
Miguel_Zorro said:
Rath said:
@Zorro. Where is the evidence there are any dollar losses at all? As I have posted numerous times the studies on piracy have reached the conclusion that the cost to the industry is either statistically insignificant or in fact causes more copies to sell.

Music sales have declined for 10 consecutive years.  That's evidence.  Any study that I've seen that's stated otherwise has been so obviously flawed that I wonder if the researchers have ever taken a stats or research methods course in their life.  One of the studies that somebody posted here stated that "People who pirate a lot, also buy more music than the average person" - they then reached the conclusion Piracy *causes* more music sales.  I shouldn't have to explain how that's flawed.  Do the researchers really not understand the difference between causality and correlation?

You are also missing the link between causality and correlation. You have no proof at all that the decline of music sales is due to piracy. As I said if you can provide statistical evidence through a major study that piracy causes a loss in software sale then I'll listen with interest.

Also people who pirate do tend to buy more music, they also tend to diffuse information more. You really do have to explain how it is flawed to come to the conclusion that piracy causes higher sales. Its what the data definitely suggests.


To your first point.  You're right, I have no proof. (Edit: See below - yes I do) The most accurate way that I can think of would be to do a longitudinal study measuring the same consumers before and after piracy existed, holding everything else equal.  We can't hold everything equal, so something just measuring the same users pre vs. post, would have to suffice.  If I have some free time, I'll see if I can find one.  The closest that I've seen looks at *all* consumers, and concludes that sales have dropped.

To your second point.  This is why it's flawed - people who are huge music fans pirate a lot of music PLUS buy a lot of music.  There's nothing to suggest that the piracy CAUSES these people to buy more music.   They do both of these things because they really like music.  They're comparing these people to those who don't pirate or buy a lot of music.   What they really need to do is determine what the people who are pirating a lot would do if they didn't have that option.  How much music did those same people purchase historically?  My mother never pirates music.  She never buys any either.  One is not a cause of the other.  They're both a function of the fact that she's just not one to consume music.  To compare big music purchasers/downloaders to people like her is extremely flawed.

Tiger Woods sleeps with lots of women.  He's also a great golfer.  The methods used in the flawed piracy studies would conclude that sleeping with lots of women causes someone to become a better golfer.  They'd look at the sidewalk on a rainy day and conclude that wet sidewalks cause rain.

A common sense approach is appropriate.  There are times when a correlation is so apparent that you can draw conclusions about causality.  For example, I cite Music Industry sales statistics:

http://76.74.24.142/81128FFD-028F-282E-1CE5-FDBF16A46388.pdf

The industry was on a growth trajectory until 1999.  In 1999 Napster launched.  Coincidence? Since then, the industry has shrunk, showing almost a straight downward trajectory.  Total value, including digital sales, is down 29% since piracy arrived on the scene - and that's only through 2007.  They shrunk again in 2008 by 18.2%, for a cumulative 41.9% drop since 1999.  That didn't happen by accident.

Update: Here's a study that measure sthe impact of piracy on the music industry.  It references surveys to estimate how much of pirated music would have otherwise been purchased, then applies an estimate that is much more conservatives than that.

http://ipi.org/IPI/IPIPublications.nsf/PublicationLookupFullText/5C2EE3D2107A4C228625733E0053A1F4

Also, the same website http://www.ipi.org/ conducts two more studies - the impact on the motion picture industry, and the impact of total copyright industry piracy.  It states:

"Using a well-established U.S. government model and the latest copyright piracy figures, this study concludes that, each year, copyright piracy from motion pictures, sound recordings, business and entertainment software and video games costs the U.S. economy $58.0 billion in total output, costs American workers 373,375 jobs and $16.3 billion in earnings, and costs federal, state, and local governments $2.6 billion in tax revenue."

Well, first of, Music Market is different from Gaming Market and may reflect the "piracy" in different ways.

 

In the past, to someone listen to your music, you had to play right at their side.

I personally believe that Music today have a lot to thank from Napster and the now widespread Mp3 sharing, with which all we have to do to know one's song is to connect, search on Google and download what you want.

Much like the Music had a lot to thank from the radios, where people would only need to turn on the radio and listen. If they wanted a copy of that music, all they needed to do was to go to the store and buy the album... or buy a cassette and copy at home... Hey!  PIRACY!

 

Look... the world is different, now we don't wait patiently 'till someone put that specific music on the chart so that I can listen, or 'till this specific guy buys this specific album to sell it in their store so that I can buy it, or 'till that specific guy likes this specific musician so that I can take a look at that same musician work.

Now we download (or listen at online radios) what we choose and people can release their music on small labels and still have a chance to be known around the world, hard but possible.

 

Anyway, we are here to talk 'bout games.

 

And about games... Seriously, guys. I'm from Brazil and I can say for sure that gaming here IS determined by piracy. Why? Price.

I'm not talking 'bout the "I see-I want-I download" piracy, but the "I go to the streets and buy a pirated CD". Go to submarino.com (http://www.submarino.com.br/menu/1471/Games) one famous online store here (not that good, but famous). Prices:

* Band Hero Bundle - Xbox360 - Importado: R$ 1.099,00
* Game Band Hero Software - PS3 - Importado: R$ 219,00

* Game Tony Hawk: Ride - X360 - Importado: R$ 699,00
* Game Wii Plus com Balance Board - Importado: R$ 699,00

* Band Hero Bundle - PS2 - Importado: R$ 1.099,00

And those were softwares... the legal and (NOW CHEAP! =D) PS3 price is: R$ 1.599,00.

 

And our minimum wages (http://www.portalbrasil.net/salariominimo.htm):

* 01/04/2002: R$ 240,00
* 01/05/2004: R$ 260,00
* 01/05/2005: R$ 300,00
* 01/04/2006: R$ 350,00
* 01/04/2007: R$ 380,00
* 01/03/2008: R$ 415,00
* 01/02/2009: R$ 465,00
* 01/01/2010: R$ 510,00

Look, I'm not talking something like "woe of us, poor brazilians that can't play God of War III", I'm saying that there's a population of 192 million people that (5th in the world, http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=brazil) may want to game and have to cope with this outrageous prices.

I'm saying that there's a MARKET here.

And what everyone that understand human nature can say when there's a market? People will try to profit, so they pirate in the streets.

And what everyone that understand basic economics can say when there's two products that are interchangeable with each other, but at two different price points? People will choose the cheaper.

 

Just a (huge) comment  from a friend from the third world.



"How hard would it be to randomize facial features and skin tones? That's what we want, to feel like we're killing hundreds of different people. Not a bunch of clones or twins. We want to know, deep down, that there are hundreds of grieving mothers out there, lamenting the terror of our dreaded blade."

Cracked.com ( http://www.cracked.com/article_16196_p4.html ), saying the Hardcore gamers' dark truth. And it's Hell True.