Analysts see Project Natal adding billions to Microsoft's revenue!

[Reasonable]

welshbloke said:

Reasonable said:
Seems unlikely. Reading their report I'm not sure they're reading the 360 audience at all well. To get that kind of attach rate it needs either a huge upswing in casual buyers - which means a lot of people are going to have to decide to get a 360 and Natal vs Wii, or a heck of a lot of the current install base is going to have to buy Natal.

TBH neither of those seems likely to me. Wii has too much momentum for such as rapid swing to Natal and I don't see the current install base rushing out an buying it in those numbers.

Still, we'll see.

What makes you think the casual market is loyal? I would fully expect them to jump onto the next great thing like lemmings of a cliff. The media certainly seem to be behind it and if they can translate some of that early hype and it works as promised I can see it succeeding. The Wii works because the fun people are having is in your face. The fun a person has playing a fps title for example would seem more like torture for those observing.

If the device works as planned and the price is right then I believe a casual market is their for the taking. Whether that is actually the kind of return these guys are talking about only time will tell.

I don't think they're loyal at all, but I see no sign yet that Natal will entice either.  It seems to have the most 'hardcore' view of all the consoles right now, and shifting market perception is hard, that's all.

I don't see it as impossible, but I don't see any evidence yet to make it likely.  All we've really seen on Natal is some sub Wii titles and some frenetic ball titles that would give the average person a heart attack after probably 15 minutes of jumping around, plus some tech demos of Burnout to show you can hook it up to current games and confirm its not the best interface for them.

Sachs might have seen stuff we haven't, but I doubt it.  They just seem to be assuming that MS marketing Natal plus the fact it's designed to appeal to casuals will succeed.  They may be right, but that seems a triffle light as compelling evidence for me.  I do expect Natal to be marketed, particularly in US, way better than Sony ever did with EyeToy or the like, but I think pure marketing won't carry it.

EDIT: just to put more context into that look how the Wii spanked the HD consoles in US over holidays.  To me that shows that the Wii still has the zeitgeist and the clear preference of the broader market.  It's not just that Natal has to succed on its own terms, but to do so it has (I think) to reverse that momentum and I just think that's easier said than done.  By the time Natal (and by extension Arc) launches I'm just wondering how many people won't have a Wii who're interested in that kind of gaming.  360 would need some seriously headline getting titles to prompt Wii owners to stump for 360/Natal combination, and I'm just concerned how many purchasers are left for 360/PS3 to target with their controls?

The casual market is fickle to be sure - but it's not known for immediately re-investing in something too similar too soon.