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well, for a big project like heavy rain I think they need to sell 1.5m-2m within a year to make a profit ..

I'm personally not sure if they can reach that, because there doesn't seem to be much incentive to buy it new/full price (only single player, under 10h for one playthrough and probably under 20h to see all content) and it's heavy cinematic part could polarize too much for it's own good

1-1.5m lifetime should be possible imo though - still I hope it takes off and shatters my low expectations ;)