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I think Pachter actually made some good points here, but also the 4th guy - the one who was always off camera did as well. I do not think Heavy Rains fate is yet determined, it all depends on how good the story and word of mouth is, combined with the reviews and marketing, and whether they can connect the gameplay with something that sounds to interesting to pass up for the masses.

I do think it is absolutely possible, in Japan the visual novel genre is huge and I think that potential base absolutely exists in the West. The problem in the West, is the average gamer and even the average reviewer and developer does not even know what a Visual Novel is, hence all the rhetoric about folks not knowing how to even classify Heavy Rain as a game. They say its "totally new", and its not totally new, its just totally new in the West and done by a Western team to Western tatstes.. but the genre itself is hugely successful in Asia.

So HR definatly has the possibility for commercial success, the key is clueing in the potential audience to the fact that this is in fact a game they should try. Sounds easy, but will likely prove to be very difficult.