The processing power of Nintendo’s next system will be determined (in a large part) by when Nintendo releases their console. While people will defend the honour of their console today and argue against it, over the next couple of years a processor like the Intel Atom paired with a low end laptop GPU will creep their way to being a more powerful system than either of the HD consoles; and a couple years after that an ARM processor and a mobile GPU will pass the HD consoles.
Now, if Nintendo was going to maintain (roughly) the same performance level in the next generation as they did in this generation I would expect a jump from the XBox 360 to the next Nintendo system would be roughly the same as the jump from the Gamecube to the Wii in 2011; and I would expect that the system’s overall performance would double every 18 to 24 months following that if it was released later.
I don’t (really) believe that the Wii was the "Best" Nintendo could do in terms of performance given the constraints of size and price; and I suspect that if they switched architecture and made more internal space with a laptop-DVD drive they could have (potentially) increased the processing power by more than double (possibly up to 4 times the processing power). The reason for this is that when the Wii was released IBM’s Power PC 970MP (the dual core processor of using a similar core as the Gekko/Broadway) was in use in laptops clocked at 2GHz; and a mid-range laptop GPU in 2006 would have been (roughly) equivalent to a Radeon X600. If Nintendo followed this route with their next system I would expect their next system to be 4 times as powerful as the XBox 360 in 2011; and I would expect that the system’s overall performance would double every 18 to 24 months following that if it was released later.
There is a third option, and Nintendo could return to conventional console hardware; which would be (roughly) the equivalent of a 2 year old high-end gaming PC upon launch. At the end of 2011 this system would probably be 6 to 8 times the performance of the XBox 360; and I would expect that the system’s overall performance would double every 18 to 24 months following that if it was released later.
Unless their next system is released this year, I expect their next system to be more powerful than the HD consoles; and given what Nintendo has done in the past it could be substantially more powerful than either console (depending on when it is released).
