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I think somewhere between 7 and 8 million. Hollidays aren't going to change much about that, people who wanted Halo 3 had an early holiday already. There are tons of other great titles to get out there this holiday season to factor out the holidays too. And yeah Halo 2 didn't had competition either. Take Call of Duty 4 for instance, it won't outsell Halo 3, not by a large shot but in my opinion it has a far better online multiplayer than Halo 3. And by next year the competition has gotten only bigger and stronger!