I think it's a reasonably safe bet that Avatar will win. I don't think that's a bad thing either, I really enjoyed the film (mainly for the visual effects). Sure it wasn't an original plot but it was well told and I found myself actually caring what happened so I'm fine with that. Besides it's hardly the first film to re-use that kind of story line (Dances with Wolves, The Last Mohican, The Last Samurai, Ferngully, Pocahontas to name just a few). I've been pretty disapointed with films released this year and personally don't think anything has been a stand out classic. The best film I've seen released this year in the UK is Let The Right One In but that was left off the the nomination list last year when it was released in Sweeden.