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TheRealMafoo said:
Obviously the movie staring the fat ugly black chick.

If the question what what movie SHOULD win, and not what movie WILL win, I have to go with IB.

As for avatars story, I feel I have seen it before... (spoiler alert)
http://www.buzzfeed.com/reddit/james-camerons-pocohontas-err-avatar

Yes, because movies starring fat ugly black chicks always win all the awards.