I think Zelda will win because its Zelda.
Super Mario Galaxy 2 doesn't look that much different from the first one, so I can say until I play it.
Metroid: Other M has a great shot, it's the dark horse to win game of the year.
Red Steel 2 looks great, but, it has no chance to win game of the year.
The only two 3rd party Wii games that has a shot of winning game of the year is probably Monster Hunter 3 and Epic Mickey.