| Procrastinato said: After you put some time into it, MAG makes other console FPS multiplayer modes look kinda... dated. I think it'll take a while to get off the ground, but it's legs will probably be abnormally long. That said, RPGs usually sell some huge portion of their LTD during their first couple weeks, or even first week. They have a horribly long used lifespan at used game retailers -- which kills their legs in a major way. MAG is the opposite. I doubt finding used copies will be even close to as easy. If MAG wasn't a new IP, I'd say that it'd probably come out on top, if we revisited this topic, on Jan 26th, 2011. Jan 26th, 2010, seems like no contest for Mass Effect 2, though. |
That only applies to Japanese RPGs.
If you look at western RPGs, they are the antithesis of frontloaded.
- Oblivion - 7.3x multiplier (assumes about 50% of NA sales in PAL which weren't tracked at the time)
- Fallout 3 - 4.5x multiplier (and still selling ~15k copies a week)
- Sacred 2 - 6.0x multiplier
- Two Worlds - 3.9x multiplier (worst legs of any RPG, and rightfully so with such low scores)
- Dragon Age - 4.6x multiplier (and still selling)
- Marvel: Ultimate Alliance 2 - 2.6x multiplier (again, bad but still going to go up)
- Fable 2 - 3.2x multiplier (after a 1m opening)
- Mass Effect - 5.4x multiplier
RPGs on the 360 are quite long-lived. Even Fable 2 managed a fantastic multiplier and continues to sell even today. I would venture to say that Mass Effect 2 should sell similarly to Fable 2, if not a little better.
IMO, Mass Effect will sell between 3-4 million copies.
MAG will sell ~2 million copies.
I don't think they'll be close. MAG will be a good game, and should get decent sales, but to argue that it'll be close is not understanding how good Mass Effect was.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
