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I definitely do not see any surprise consoles being released this year and I think ultimately they have November 2012 circled on the calendar.
However if Natal really bombs it could sink the console and I wouldn't be shocked if they have something ready for November 2011.
If Natal really takes off it would be like a console re-launch and could extend the life into late 2013 or even 2014.
I think it would be unrealistic to think that MS doesn't launch a new system in 2012 (7 years)