WW Up!

[Alby_da_Wolf]

Avinash_Tyagi said:

Alby_da_Wolf said:

Avinash_Tyagi said:

Alby_da_Wolf said:

[...]

Nice, Wii can go up and at the same time the total PS3+XB360 can grow too (YoY), coexistence is proven possible once again. Take this, Malstrom! 

Actually initially, the flight upmarket can coincide with higher sales for the incumbents, only to see it fall to the ground when they are impaled on the sword of disruption

If you so like to think... It could even happen, but the more time passes without Wii exceeding 50% total sales, the less likely disruption gets.

And don't forget that unlike PC market, that has continuity and allows MS to never release its iron grip, console market hasn't, it's split in generations and nothing can grant Wii2 the success and disruptive power Wii has, at most the biggest continuity element new gen can offer is BC, that greatly helps at start, but never did more. For what we know, 8th gen could even be partially or totally disrupted by Apple, or Nokia, or Sega, or Google... or Oracle (NOT, j/k! ), leaving MS, Sony and Nintendo with a blank look.

nope, actually the Arc and NATAL represent that the disruption is going according to plan, these are what Christensen refers to as incumbent counter attacks, and seem to be a case of Sony and MS trying to cram motion into their own consoles

I don't deny that Sony and MS are reacting to Wii, but even before their reaction is actually deployed, their "classic" business model is still keeping them afloat enough to deny Wii an overwhelming victory, and they are keeping their feet in both camps, successfully managing to keep on their side the part of hardcore gamers that aren't Nintendo fans. I see more likely that some poorly managed SW houses get badly burned by disruption, not having Sony's or MS' shoulders. If you don't believe me, you should believe numbers, the new market is roughly the same size of the old one and weekly sales aren't changing this situation, so the old market can't be marginalized and made niche or disrupted, unless the current situation radically changes. Your possible objection that disruption can take a lot of years to fully happen clashes with the generations discontinuity: when next gen starts, the current leader will have undeniably a strong position, but almost nothing granted, as Sony can teach us (but also Nintendo itself), while its competitors are given almost the same new chances. And don't forget that MS is ready to lose billions in the short term to damage its competitors and grab as much market share as it can, with the perspective of widely recover the investments in the long term (but on this side, Nintendo 1st party's incredible strength protects it from almost all the effects of a possible MS moneyhatting to subtract exclusives).

And then there are 3rd parties, a lot of which still not understanding Wii and so hurting themselves, indeed, while Nintendo happily occupies the space they refuse to take, but also providing a lot of fuel to the incumbents, either right now with "classic" games, buat also possibly in the future embracing Arc and Natal more than WiiMote and Nunchuck because PS360 lets them also show the fruits of how much they invested in lush graphics (and yes, I know most people, including me, prefer gameplay to graphics, but consider their point of view, they heavily invested on them, not showing them would mean losing all that money for nothing, while using them, now that they paid them, can mean luring that share of graphics whores and recovering at least some of the investments).