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c0rd on 20 January 2010
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Sky Render said:

I think a few missed the 0 in the topic title. 10 million copies is a lot, far more than any Zelda or Metroid has ever sold. Only one 3D Mario ever broke 10 million, that being Mario 64. Myself, I don't expect Zelda Wii to outdo Twilight Princess' sales by much, if at all, and Other M will likely have trouble breaking a million units. Galaxy 2 I expect will fare better than either, but not by a lot. It will likely cap somewhere between 5 and 6 million units, unless I've missed my guess.

As for likely future 10mil+ sellers, I can think of only one in the pipeline: Wii Relax. If they made a sequel to NSMB Wii, assuming the quality was up to par, it could easily break 10 million too. Obviously Wii Fit Plus is a shoe-in for that status too, but it's already out.

EDIT: Erm, am I the only one who's actually looking at past sales trends, current information on products, and logical most-likely scenarios to extrapolate sales figures? Because I'm really getting a serious "I wanna see it happen so it can happen" vibe from a lot of these suggestions... Just sayin'...

SMG2 and Metroid have no shot at 10 million, but I wouldn't say the same about Zelda. See, the problem is we know next to nothing about the upcoming game, which is why it still has a potential (though unlikely) shot. If they're able to design the game so it resonates with the expanded audience, 10 million shouldn't be a problem.

You may look at past sales of Zelda, especially TP, and imagine I'm crazy. However, TP also had a GC release, so the game actually totals to about 7mil. VGC has the original at 6.5 mil, and Ocarina at 7.6mil. To make 10mil, the new Zelda needs to improve its sales by around 50% over the older titles.

So far, the games that hit with the expanded audience manage this without trouble. NSMB Wii should outsell Mario 3 by over 50% (the only non-bundled Mario). Mario Kart Wii has already more than doubled the sales of the previous highest console version, and continues to sell well. Mario Party 8 will end up over tripling the sales of the original.

Really, the question is whether Zelda Wii is built to draw in new fans, or ends up catering to the same old. I'm not that optimistic about it (the DS games have me worried), but some believe the team can pull it off.