How much will Zelda Wii sell?

[nintendo_fanboy]

thetonestarr said:

Roar_Of_War said:

thetonestarr said:
On the contrary, analytics-noob, vastly higher system installbase + previous Zelda game sold 7m on VERY LITTLE installbase = breaking 10m is nearly guaranteed.

Roflmfao. Wishful thinking. Zelda Wii won't be the only game supporting great motion controls by the time of its release. Phantom Hourglass couldn't even break 5 million on the DS - the system with the largest audience of current gen. Even Wii Sports Resort has only just recently gotten itself in the double-digit millions mark. and mind you that part of Twilight Princess' sales are on the gamecube. Why is this? Because not everyone wants their Zelda with forced new controls.

 

Zelda has an audience with people who don't buy things like Wii Sports Resort, or at least with people who would say "If I wanted motion controls, I'd go looking for it somewhere else. If I want Zelda, I expect Zelda!"

 

and to think you suggested 16 million through 18 million? I don't think think so. Zelda will never be that sucessful, as long as its always Zelda. Even if its a hit, its still Zelda, and not everyone is looking for Zelda. Not even Final Fantasy, which is more popular than Zelda. Core franchises like them have their limits, especially when 3D. They aren't accessible enough, even with a fancy new control system.

 

10 million is possible to achieve, but unlikely - and thats just 10 million. You should watch yourself, otherwise Zelda Wii's sales are going to come as a huge shock to you when it releases. I'd spare yourself the disappointment.

I've been keeping an eye on sales figures and analysis for nearly a decade, and following them with deep precision for over three years - ever since I found this site. How long have you been tracking them? According to the site's registration record, you've got less than three weeks under your belt.

With that said, don't you think you could give the benefit of the doubt to me, on the grounds that perhaps I've got more experience in estimating these things by now?

Zelda games have historically sold comparably poorly on handhelds. Link's Awakening pulled six million through two different releases. The Oracle games sold roughly a little less than 4 million each. The re-release of A Link to the Past on GBA sold less than 2 million units, and Minish Cap made only over 1 million total sales. Thus said, trying to use Phantom Hourglass as a method of comparison simply doesn't work.

Meanwhile, Nintendo has stated repeatedly that Zelda Wii will be an entirely new thing, essentially the biggest change to the Zelda equation since Ocarina of Time. And Ocarina sold almost 8m total on a system that capped out at less than HALF the total userbase that the Wii has right now. Just assuming it follows sales trends identical to Ocarina, it would HAVE to sell a minimum of 15m. MINIMUM. And that's only assuming there aren't millions more Wii systems in ownership by that point in time, too.

Additionally, you yourself stated that Zelda Wii won't be the only game SUPPORTING "great motion controls". You have a few things your statement fails to realize:

• Zelda Wii is merely supposed to SUPPORT WM+, not require it. Sales very much likely won't be capped by WM+ ownership
• If, for some odd reason, they decide they WILL require WM+, for a title like that, Nintendo is likely to bundle the accessory. Either that, or they'll have done some other method of making ownership of WM+ not as big of an issue, such as...
• It won't be the only game that supports it. We already have over 12 MILLION units of Wii Sports Resort in consumers' hands, which means over 12 MILLION different systems - minimum - already have access to that form of superior control. Add to that the next ten months of WM+/Sports Resort sales, particularly considering the fact that many, MANY more people will be purchasing them as a result of these future "games supporting great motion controls", and there will be nothing to worry about.
• Since it's likely that they won't require WM+ to play the game, its sales will only be HELPED by this. You'll get give-or-take every single one of the roughly 7m people that bought Twilight Princess. You'll get the loads of other Zelda fans that didn't buy TP at the time. You'll get the tons of more "core" gamers that are interested in Zelda, but were uncertain or didn't own a Wii when TP was still new. You'll have the casual gamers that enjoyed WM+ usage in Sports Resort, and have heard about Zelda Wii so they want to check it out (and this crowd is most likely to buy Zelda Wii over anything else because it will very clearly be the best, and most family-friendly, title available WITH the "great motion controls"). And you'll have the rest of the gamers that keep an eye on review scores and hype before they go out and buy.

THEN, lastly, you're failing to consider how much larger the Wii's installbase is going to grow, and the fact that Nintendo will likely support Zelda Wii through to the end. I predict 16-18m because it makes sense. Zelda Wii will be the Wii's Diamond and Pearl. All the same types of sales figures, factors, and statistics will apply. Count on it.

First, starting your arguments with your "experience" seems very arrogant and doesn't help your point at all.

Second, I completely agree with burgerstein that you set yourself up for a huge disappointment. As he says, I'm also completely certain that no Zelda game will ever sell 16 million. I don't even think a Zelda game will sell 10 million in the near future.

As a long time "analyst" you should know by now that userbase is never a good reason to predict sales. During sixth gen, GC had some pretty decent sellers Sony would also have liked, although the GC's userbase was ignorably small compared with the PS2's. And now with the Wii, those core franchises like Mario 3D, Smash Brothers etc of course sell more, but not the same percentage as on the Cube. You base your argument on the fact that OoT sold almost 8 million on N64 and the Wii has the double userbase, so Zelda Wii has to sell 16 million. This is just nonsense. Case closed.