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richardhutnik on 20 January 2010
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Please note my avatar symbol. That is the symbol of Atari, and the top dog of the crash of the past. If the videogame industry survived the crash of the 1980s, even when limping along on the market of computer gaming, I see it not likely that the industry would die. We may face contraction, consolidation, and a people not belong in it to leave. The industry has draw far too many individuals who have no business being in it, because they think there is a buck being made. The sooner the Michael Pachters of the world leave, the better we will be off. Maybe we can accumulate a bit more humility in things.

The only thing we have as death here is if suddenly everyone feels that videogames are not for them, and they want to go do other things. As I see it now, that isn't likely to happen. As for contrast to what we had with the crash of the 1980s, we have the following:
* Videogame rentals, that make sure we get less garbage. This has replaced the arcades as the source of trying first.
* A semblance of quality control imposed by console makers. There is a business model to prevent total dregs from appearing. Yes, I can say a game like Bionic Command (Grin version) sucked, but I can't call it a total abomination. It did work, just was annoying beyond belief.
* Internet play has made games like Halo cultural phenomenon. No way that just vanishes. It will still be around. We just debate whether or not the next FPS will be all that. And, anyone see the likes of the World of Warcraft going away soon? I don't.

* Web games, iPhone apps, and the DS have all also established themselves as viable and sustainable.


Expect more consolidation going on, and some surprising drop offs. We may look at the Wii approach to new consoles also, and companies looking for Blue Oceans and the diversity of play growing. This will be healthy. I say contraction is possible. But, unless you see something like what happened when Atari suddenly declared record profits, causing an entire shakedown and crash of the industry, it isn't going to happen. Even despite all that, Atari STILL sold a million units a year of the Atari 2600 annually.