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If it was just Japan melting down, maybe it would be safe. Sony (and maybe Nintendo) would have to react, but most of their revenue comes from overseas (more than 70% and more than 80% respectively I think), and as you said a potentially weak Yen would mitigate the problem as well. Sony would probably have to cut capacity and do layoffs, while Nintendo would probably just cut some production capacity (but they outsource it anyway). If on the other hand the Yen doesn't go down, it's a whole other level of problems.

However I suspect the Japan situation and many other things which are wrong will cause problems in many places... Japan is a quite peculiar example, because people there save lots of money, and they do it by investing in Japanese debt. This is not the case in many other countries, in the US for example most people don't save any money, so US debt is mostly held by banks and foreign countries (like Japan), making it more vulnerable to these global meltdowns. For example Japan could choose to liquidate its vast holdings of USA debt to keep things going a bit longer after running out of lenders. This in turn would increase interest rates for US bonds and hamper US's government stimulus. The technical name is "clusterfuck" as you can see.

The way I see it is, the world's economies are almost all hanging on massive government stimulus and low interest rates from central banks. Watch what they do, not what they say. What they say is economies are recovering, what they do is keeping interest rates extremely low and stimulus measures firmly in place. Those who believe there's a sustainable recovery are fooling themselves or letting themselves be fooled IMO, and this year or the next will prove to be a rude awakening.

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957