I'm sorry, but Natal will be a massive flop. The hardcore like precison in their controls, and a large portion of them were once very vocal about their opposition to motion contorls on the Wii.. What makes you think they would change their tone when MS does it?
As for the casuals, they like games that are accessible, quick fun, pick up and play experiences. I just don't see this with Natal. It seems to hinder the gameplay more than enhance it, and makes it more complicated rather than simplify it.
The majority of games simply cannot be played with simply body motions and no controllers. It's just impossible. Natal will have a few really fun simple games, but the majority of genres out there need a controller with buttons to be playable. For instance, how in the hell do you propose controlling a 3-D FPS with just your body motions? I mean are you supposed to jog in place to move? Nobody ever talks about these issues..
Now as an addon IN ADDITION to traditional controls, it may be useful, but there is no way it can work on its own for 99% of games. It's a flop in the making, and anyone hyping this up as the next big thing are either hardcore MS fanboys convinced that anything MS makes is gold, or they are viral marketers working for MS.