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JaggedSac said:
First off, are you under the impression that they are not targeting the casual market first with Natal?

So it is a bad idea to try and extend the 360's audience by providing a unique experience via Natal? Or are you saying it cannot be done due to the fact that MS has already courted the core market and cannot now extend to the casual?

They themselves have stated that core is first.

 

Actually trying to market to their core first is a bad idea, first off the core are the least likely to welcome the new innovation, if they are willing to adopt it, they'll be Wii owners already, secondly core games are the least likely to benefit from the innovation.

 

Now when it comes to reaching the downmarket, yes they'll have a hard time, what is a strength to them in the core market are weaknesses in the downmarket, the downmarket has different values, Nintendo already has learned the lessons of the downmarket, its their strength, but MS and the third parties it depends on so much do not, which is why they have such trouble with that audience, NATAL will reflect those problems in its software selection for the downmarket, and the core will see little benefit to NATAL in their own games.



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)