First of all, a slight correction: it seems it's not an NPD analyst, rather someone from EEDAR.
As for his actual point... why is he ignoring the ton of titles which don't have sequels, but don't have nearly as great legs as those cherry-picked examples?
I don't think this theory flies. If you can make a high-quality and highly appealing title like Mario Kart, it shouldn't get a sequel. The reverse is not true though.
My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957