I'm amazed at how short-sighted people are being on PS3's sales.
The slow period will hit Q2-Q3 (until GT5 hits), and will look like this, at best:
Japan: ~30k
Americas: ~45k
Others: ~70k
I highly doubt it can avoid dipping under 140k, let alone 200k. Expecting a consistent 100%+ increase year over year is crazy.