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a few points

a) toshiba is winning wayyyy over sony...if toshiba didn't spend the money on hd-dvd, then blu-ray would have a much better chance, as all studios would use blu-ray...all the movies that are on hd-dvd right now give royalties to toshiba, whether they sell on dvd or hd-dvd...if those movies were on blu-ray instead, toshiba wouldn't see a dime for the blu-ray versions of them...and if blu-ray didn't have the competition and the split, causing consumers to wait to see which side wins before taking a plunge, then blu-ray would win much faster, thus leading to less royalties on dvds for toshiba...so toshiba has to play this game to protect themselves

b) i prefer hd-dvd because they sell many movies in dual-format...i don't wanna spend $30 on a dvd that i can only play on my one hd-dvd player in one room in my house...can't watch it on laptop, portable dvd player on vacation, my friend's house, etc etc etc

c) dvds caught on because they offered different FEATURES than vhs: chapters, no-rewind, languages/subtitles, commentaries, etc etc...same with mp3s over cds...consumers don't care much about QUALITY, they care about features...mp3s have worse quality than cds but offer more features....so will be tough for hd-dvd to catch on...consumers just won't pay much of an extra cost just for the quality increase...even hdtvs have been slow to penetrate the market

d) u can get hd-dvd players for $200 now and walmart/bestbuy sold some last month for $100 on a friday...when they can sell large quantities at $100, they will see a huge increase in sales...blu-ray's laser costs too much for blu-ray to compete with this price in the near future...so hd-dvd had the advantage even if there are currently more blu-ray players...once buying an hd-dvd player is only $50 or so more than a regular dvd player, a good % of consumers with hdtvs that buy a dvd player will go ahead and get an hd-dvd player



Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08.  Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)

Predictions:

Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07  CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp