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Gran Turismo 5 will be a big seller, there's no question about that. But it will have to deal with a much lower userbase (PS3 not selling like the PS1 and PS2), as well as a fragmented fanbase (there are a decent amount of GT fans who likely bought 360s and Forza). GT5 could get to 10 million if it gets lucky (or there's a good amount of bundling).

Halo: Reach, on the other hand, is practically guaranteed for 10 million. I see it winning in the end by a good amount. This will be a full-fledged Halo game, and it will be hyped up to heaven. Personally, I can't wait to play it.