I'd say it depends on the core gameplay. This type of racing title can be very popular, and of course has a good chance in Others/Japan with the racing crowd there.
However, if the racing is just okay with editing tracks and lots of custom tracks as the main draw then it will sell okay but probably not to LBP levels.
If the racing is really good and fun, plus the editing works well, then I believe it could do very well.
Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...