This is essentially CoD7 vs NSMB Wii. Halo Reach and GT5 won't be able to pull it off, unless Halo opens like MW2, and NSMB Wii disappoints.
I think CoD might make it, depending on what the setting of the game is, as it's coming off the MW2 popularity. If it's World War 2 again, consider your bet won.