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Woah.   Me > ioi.  :O

It's not surprising that most people were way off on the Wii. We had little information to go on from previous year, since the Wii was heavily supply constrained. We didn't know:

1. How much the Wii would've sold in 2008 had it not been supply constrained.
2. If supply would be an issue this year.

And at the time, we also didn't know:

3. Just how big of an impact the price cut might have.

In the end, it was Nintendo's ability to keep stock on shelves up until the week before Christmas or so that allowed the Wii to easily surpass most people's expectations.