Cartridges -> disk -> Cartridges come back??

[dharh]

WilliamWatts said:

dharh said:

Wha? Easier storage? In what way is it easier? If you would stop jump up and down on your discs maybe that wouldn't be a problem. You know, most of what you add as pros seem kinda trivial. I'll get to your last point in a minute.

Borderlands isn't epic, though I grant you it _is_ a type of game that would fit well with this limited system. It's not that all developers need 25GB of space, its that some developers might want to make such a game, rare as that may be. If they aren't using the entire disc space, then truly why do they have massive load times? Seems to me it has nothing to do with the disc, and more to do with a inefficient game engine. Epic JRPGs are the only thing I really care about.

You've got the costs of the optical drive and HDD way too high. The BRD drive and 120 GB HD atm cost <$150, which is really reasonable. But for the sake of argument we could go with a DVD drive and the cost would be <$100 or a small hard drive and make it even less. Which probably starts to the approach the cost of the cart slot. Especially one that would be capable of both read and write and is of a proprietary format.

If on the other hand they did go with SD cards that might drop the costs since the infrastructure has long been already entrenched but opens up some problems. More piracy and costs per cart are still many times the cost per disc. Even a blank BRD is pennies compared to the dollars per SDHC to manufacture.

The costs are a big part of the problem. If you can package the costs into a one time purchase (say the disc drive and hard drive) its much less costly to individual consumers in the long run. If on the other hand the main cost is the cart, someone is going to have to eat that cost, and they have to do it every single purchase.

I still think even with a cart based system, it would be less expensive to the consumer to push the storage of save files and DD games/movies onto a HDD. 

Im not saying your points are invalid, they are valid and well stated. I hope to allign our points of view a little more so we can see things on the same level.

For the epic JRPGs and other games the trend this generation which will extend even further for the next is increasing use of procedural generation of content like in-engine cut scenes, user defined character models and procedural generation of environments and increasing use of downloadable content to add to games. To fit into the new models of game development, games are becoming smaller to suit direct downloading as a means of distribution. Also increasing use of extra content and patches makes it even more appealing to fix games continually and to ship them patched and patch them permamently when they are in user hands rather than having to store that data on HDD.

The cost of the HDD + Optical drive model I listed was around $80 which is a permament addition to the overall cost of a console. The PS3 will struggle to cost less than $200 because of this fact and the cost decreases from here on out will be much smaller as the relatively fixed cost of that HDD and optical drive means that even more massive reductions in the price of the other components are required to shift the cost of the console to the end user and Sony in this instance.

You pay extra for the content delivery method whether its up front on the console, taken as higher royalties on the content or on the cartridges themselves. Theres no free lunch in any of the different models, so you're paying extra for your content either way. This is where the extra cost per cartridge is balanced out and this is where strategies to mitigate the extra cost of the cartridges are of great benefit. Nintendo didn't have the option of giving people a chance to pay less for their content with the N64 if they used a larger re-writeable flash based disc and you cannot pay less for your content unless it comes directly through retailers at the same price as well in the case of downloadable content.

My hope is if you cannot agree that cartridges are a good delivery method for whatever reason that you can at least acknowledge that my points are well stated and valid as well.

Oh indeed you state your case well. I know these days this is a rarity. Ultimately i'm arguing past you though, as what im really talking about is what you would be able to buy at a brick and morter store, where you are mainly talking about is the main storage method.

Ultimately I think the problem is a straight cart based system is that ultimately it costs the studio and the consumer more money. Straight up.

A hybrid system as you sort of describe _could_ cost less but probably still more than a disc based system. A lower cost hybrid system would be a HDD + cart/card or dual card or card + a good sized internal memory space (X360 arcade and Wii). I don't think we will see a dual card system but the other two are viable. A single card system with no native storage has too many issues, least of all which permanent storage of certain elements you definitely do not want on a card. All the hybrid systems would need to rely heavily on DD (not kiosks) to keep the costs potentially low for the consumer.

But here is what I really think. We will see continued use a disc base system for a majority of consoles. Mainly for those consoles that follow PC market trends, which for the foreseeable future is DVD/BRD and not SDHC. Flash based hard drive probably will indeed make their way into consoles at some point but they are too expensive still. At some point DD will reach the tipping point and disc based retail will fall. We will probably see a flash based hard drive and an SDHC slot in consoles of the future. But the SDHC will primarily be used to copy and move files other than games rather than being sold as the games.

Consoles are and have been becoming specialized computers, even the Wii is having trouble escaping this. If Nintendo does however stay out of that space they will probably risk quite a bit of profit (I don't think they will though).

An SDHC based console will have buck a trend without as many of the benefits as discs had when it overcame carts.