"You have to ask yourself if its more worthwhile for them to keep thinking up new bright ideas (to avoid releasing "more of the same") for this "expanded" audience every single time when they also have the option of scoring with a runaway hit like Modern Warfare and rereleasing an updated version every 2 years on PS360."
You still need to come up with something new with those games after a while or the sale slow down. See the "Stories" games in GTA.
And doing some market research isn't that hard. You just look for what people want. And sometimes they even do want more of the same (Brain Age 2 being one example). If they don't, it's still going to be less costly to make a new game than the loads being spent on Call of Duty.
A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.
Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs