Cartidges vs Optical discs.
Pros cartridges:
- Console can be packaged smaller/cheaper with no implied need for a HDD or Optical Drive except when the console manufacturer wants backwards compatibility. So this saving can offset the cost of flash games for between 4-6 games.
- Catridges are smaller so you can fit more per package.
- Supports other forms of distribution/rental as in with re-writable media like kiosks.
- Cartridges can possibly be recycled and reused.
- Cartridges reduce loading times and are silent, they are also more reliable.
- Can help reduce 2nd hand market.
- Suits AAA developers and ever green software when you can be sure of pre-orders or continual sales.
- Can be patched in production or after release to remove errors.
- The cartridge size scales with the generation. In addition to this its also compatible with newer fabrication technologies which may be cheaper or contain more data without the draw backs of dual layer discs.
Pros optical discs:
- Easy to mass produce, easy to ramp up production and cheap per disc.
- Backwards compatibility is always available as an option.
- Familiarity of producers with this medium.
- Can play movie and music discs.
- Gives better variety as riskier concepts are easier to introduce.
- Can be made incompatible with common desktop writers.
- Better margins per game, can be sold for a lower cost.
Cons catridges:
- They cost more to produce.
- More difficult to ramp production up to respond to demand.
- Backwards compatibility may require an optical drive as well.
- Hurts risky concepts and smaller developers more.
- Provides an even easier avenue for piracy in the form of rewritable cartidges.
- Lower margins per game, cannot be as easily reduced to $10-20.
- May not have an option for 2nd hand software for consumers or this may become more difficult.
Cons optical discs:
- Noisy and may require additional hardware to work better, Ram and HDDs come to mind.
- Can be scratched/rendered unusable much easier.
- No control over 2nd hand market.
- Allows more shovelware to flood a system due to lower cost of production.
- Cannot be as easily patched without a HDD for every console.
Notes:
Now where I see cartidges working better are in two areas. The first is with consoles which have a multiple SKU system where you can have different features to meet different needs, so Xbox 360 Arcade concept is a good place to find catridges as it lowers the base cost of the console and there are few fixed costs to keep the entry price up. The second is when a console manufacturer wants to release a small and easy to use console or handheld like the Wii where the packaging requirements are for a small cheap and simple console. Its a possible candidate for a Wii 2.
You should also consider the total cost of the package rather than the game disc/cartridge itself. Every disc written generally has a case made for it as well, so the costs may be in the order of $3 for an optical disc vs $6-8 for flash media.
Fabrication plants are transitioning to 450mm wafers during next generation which means a substantial increase in dies per wafer and a reduction in the base cost of all silicon chips eventually.
NAND technology has hit a wall recently in terms of process shrinks, multilevel flash has to be run at very high voltages 10+ to operate. However new technologies are coming which promise faster, cheaper and more dense flash to be produced.
Lastly for backwards compatibility you need an optical drive and perhaps a HDD as well. It makes less sense to include these and go for flash media if you're producing an all in one console SKU which does everything so to speak. The simpler and more single minded the console it the more flash makes sense and the more feature packed your mainline console is the less it makes sense.
In order of likelihood my guess is Nintendo ----> Microsoft ------------------------> Sony as far as implementing this technology.
