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The stars aligned for the PS2 to last as long as it has.

PS3 was a flop (don't deny it) at launch. NOBODY except the extreme loyalists would pay $600 for the machine. So the fanbase stuck to the PS2.

Wii being a weaker machine allowed developers to maintain development for PS2 since they could easily be ported to Wii and be considered satisfactory.

On top of that Sony knocked out PS2 backwards compatibility, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of current PS2 sales are rebuys of previous owners whose systems are crapping out and since there is no way to play PS2 games other than a PS2 they buy another.

If PS3 was cheaper, and the Wii more powerful, PS2 probably would have died 2 years ago.

Since Wii is the only console to be drastically behind graphically, I don't see it lasting long into next generation. especially since Nintendo is going to make a 2-generation leap in power and also have the latest and greatest in motion control. 3rd party developers have completely ignored the Wii (and have payed the price) so it's library isn't nearly as strong as the PS2 which helped it maintain its sales.

All of that being said, the DS will outsell it with ease most likely by the end of the year. It doesn't look like Wii is going to make it though, (probably only 120 million) Since the software just isn't there to drive the hardware outside of Nintendo games.