Anyone believe we'll see a new Ninty console in 2012?

[dunno001]

Probably one of Nintendo's systems will see its true successor in 2012, and while Nintendo has the cards, they're going to wait to see how the cards of their competition play out. Here are the following scenarios I see:

Scenario 1: Microsoft launches Natal in late 2010 to poor sales, not spurring a relaunch like MS wants. MS turns around and announces the 720 at E3 2011, for release in early 2012, Natal being standard. Nintendo announces Wii 2 at TGS 2011, for a later 2012 release. PS4 will also see a late 2012 release. DS2 to follow in late 2013.

Scenario 2: MS launches Natal to moderate success- they take back an easy 2nd place, though Wii still seems out of reach. MS has no new system announcements. Nintendo announces DS2 at either E3 or TGS 2011 for late 2012 release. Wii 2 possibly looking at late 2013. 720 and PS4 will also release in the 2013 holiday season, creating a massive mess.

Scenario 3: MS launches Natal to roaring success- sales skyrocket, as Wii's lead looks to be threatened. Nintendo panics, and announces Wii 2 at E3 2011 for early 2012 release. DS2 pushed off to mid-late 2013.

Scenario 4: MS makes a serious pass at the portable gaming market. Nintendo says nothing, but they will hold cards close to their chest. If it does tepid sales, Nintendo goes on like normal (see last scenario). If it does well, especially in Japan, Nintendo announces DS2, with launch of DS2 to be about 6 months away.

Scenario 5: Sony announces PSP2 with touch screen. I can see this happening at either E3 2010 or 2011. (Or not, it's just what I'm seeing as possibilities.) Nintendo announces DS2 at same year's TGS, both for release in the following year. Wii 2 to see release in 2013, April of 2011 DS2, October if 2012 DS2.

Scenario 6: This will be the worst case scenario for Nintendo. Natal poses a threat to the Wii OR the 720 is announced in 2011, AND Sony announces the PSP2, all for release in early 2012. Nintendo has a couple of options here, and none of them are pretty. In all cases, I see Nintendo announcing both new systems at TGS. First option is to release one of the systems in late 2011, and the other in mid 2012. This gives them the chance of getting the systems in 2 seperate fiscal years, but may harm availiable games at launch, especially for the 2011 launch system. The second choice is to launch both in mid-late 2012. This has the problem of confusing even the loyal Nintendo people as to which system they should buy. Not to mention it would run Nintendo's teams thin, having to make games for both systems simultaneously. Third option is to ignore one of them (being Japan-centric, I see MS as the one being ignored), and launch one in 2012 (probably the DS2), and the other (Wii 2) in April 2013, and having to close the gap again. Nintendo did it before, but can they do it again, especially with the increased media hate for them?

Scenario 7: Nobody announces anything, Natal doesn't materialize (or is not seen as a threat to Nintendo), and others await Nintendo's move. We will see a longer generation. If nobody forces Nintendo's hand, I think there will be no new console in 2012. The DS2 will come out in 2013 (as will the PSP2), with the Wii 2 in 2014. I'd not be surprised to see someone launch either the 720 or PS4 for the 2013 holiday season, though I think they'd all be aiming for 2014, to try to maximize profits on this gen.

A few assumptions I am making- First, I do not see Sony jumping out the gate with the PS4. I think they were too cocky with their 10-year plan in the beginning, and they started latest on R&D for it. Secondly, this assumes that Nintendo doesn't get spooked if Wii sales drop, and decide to jump early. Thirdly, I do not see anyone else actively trying to get into the console market- Sony and MS going with the razor-blade model will keep companies like Apple away, and the sheer costs will keep many others away.