Two years ago I said 2012; now I'm starting to think it may be later.
While I don't doubt that Nintendo is spending the most money on R&D and is by far the most prepared for next gen, I suspect they will not launch until after at least one, probably both of Sony and MS have. Remember (in home consoles) - no market leader has ever launched first and Nintendo has never launched first regardless of their position.
I think Nintendo is probably gearing up so they can launch 6 to 12 months after one of the other companies launches. If Natal does not significantly bring up the 360s sales then MS will probably announce its successor during 2011 with a 2012 launch window. Making the next Nintendo console come out in 2013. On the other hand if Natal is a success, the next gen may be delayed even further.
