| allaboutthegames885 said: So Sqrl: what do you think my chances of 1st place in this League are? |
At the moment your chances aren't too much better than the folks who are trailing you by less than 10 points honestly. The reason is that the playoffs are designed to increase the points available on each decision made and thus increase the variance of points scored. In essence the playoffs are designed to make each decision even more critical than the last.
The lead you have is giving you some enviable margin for error but with the outcome of a single game deciding ~4 points a 10 point lead doesn't provide as much margin for error as one might like to have....
I honestly think that for the top 5 people on the list it is fairly wide open...obviously some having better chances than others but like I said, there are 64 points to be won during the playoffs and that leaves room for anything to happen.
Above all else though I would say this isn't a game of chance! Which means that your biggest advantage won't be your 10 point lead but whatever skill those points represent for correctly picking games. And while I could take a stab at quantifying that advantage I much prefer to let the final outcome of the season do that for me - it will certainly be more accurate anyways.
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| To Each Man, Responsibility |
